Why They're Waiting: DFW Housing Market Update June 2025
There’s a weird energy in the real estate market right now.
Mortgage rates are hovering around 7%.
Buyers are hesitating.
Sellers are frustrated.
And everyone’s asking the same question:
“Didn’t the Fed just meet? Shouldn’t something have changed by now?”
Over the past year, you've probably heard a lot of experts, economists, and maybe even your mortgage lender say something like:
"Hang tight—once inflation cools off, the Fed will start cutting rates. And when that happens, mortgage rates will come down too."
That narrative became the light at the end of the tunnel for buyers who were getting squeezed by the prospect of high monthly payments.
It became part of the plan.
And when inflation did start cooling?
When economic growth slowed just a bit?
You probably thought: “Okay, here it comes. Relief is finally on the way.”
But the Fed didn’t cut rates.
And mortgage rates didn’t budge.
So now it feels like someone moved the goalposts—again.
The economy didn’t follow the script as neatly as expected.
And the Fed, cautious as ever, is choosing patience over promises.
That’s why in this video, we’re breaking down:
What the Fed actually said in its June 2025 meeting
Why mortgage rates are still stubbornly high
When they might actually fall
How much more buying power you could have once they do
And what this all means if you're buying or selling a home in the second half of 2025
Because here’s the truth:
The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates. But it does set the tone. And right now, the they’re saying, “sit tight.”
So if you’re tired of waiting and ready to understand what’s really happening—we’ve got you.
Let’s get into it.
First, What the Fed Actually Did (and Didn’t Do)
At its June 2025 meeting, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate, also known as the federal funds rate, unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50%. That’s the same range it’s been sitting in since July 2023.
So technically? They didn’t do anything.
But in Fed-speak, saying nothing is still saying something. And what they said this time, through their press release, dot plot, and public remarks—is that they’re still worried about inflation and not quite ready to start cutting.
They also signaled that if inflation continues to cool and the job market doesn’t overheat, they could still cut rates twice by the end of this year.
That's the plan. Not a promise.
Now, if you're a normal human who doesn't read FOMC meeting minutes for fun (weird flex, but okay), you might be wondering…
Wait, Does the Fed Even Control Mortgage Rates?
Short answer: No.
Real answer: Not directly, but their decisions heavily influence them.
Here’s how it works:
The federal funds rate is the interest rate banks charge each other for overnight loans. Mortgage rates, on the other hand, are tied to longer-term borrowing—especially the 10-year Treasury yield, which reacts to what investors think the Fed will do next.
So when the Fed says, “We’re staying put for now,” the mortgage market hears:
“Rates are going to stay higher for longer.”
And investors adjust their expectations accordingly.
That’s why you didn’t see mortgage rates drop after the June meeting—because while the Fed didn’t raise rates, they also didn’t give markets a strong enough reason to believe cuts are right around the corner.
In fact, some investors are now betting we might only get one cut this year… or maybe none at all.
So no, the Fed doesn’t pull the mortgage rate. But they do control the mood of the room—and right now, the vibe is: cautiously tight.
Why aren’t mortgage rates going down yet?
Number 1. The Fed is still worried about inflation.
Yes, inflation has come down from its pandemic-era highs. But it’s not where the Fed wants it to be yet.
The Fed’s target for inflation is 2%.
Right now, the most recent core inflation reading is around 2.8–3.0%, depending on which measure you use. That’s better than it was, but it’s still not low enough to trigger celebration—or interest rate cuts.
Think of it like trying to get your sourdough starter just right.
It’s not enough for it to look okay. You want it consistently rising, doing its job, and showing that it’s stable.
Same goes for inflation. The Fed wants to see a clear and consistent pattern of cooling—not just one or two decent months.
Number 2: The labor market is still strong
Normally, a strong job market is great news.
But in the Fed’s world, too many job openings and rising wages can keep inflation sticky.
People with jobs spend money. Companies raise prices. Inflation hangs around.
At the June meeting, the Fed specifically pointed out that while job growth has slowed a little, the labor market is still too resilient to justify cutting rates right now.
So from the Fed’s perspective:
→ Cutting rates too early equals risking a second wave of inflation
→ Holding steady means giving the economy a little more time to cool off
That caution is what’s keeping mortgage rates stuck where they are.
Number 3: Wall Street isn’t buying the “cut rates soon” story—yet.
This part is a little wonky, but hang in there.
Mortgage rates are closely tied to the 10-year Treasury yield, which is driven by investor expectations about the future of the economy.
If investors think the Fed will cut rates soon, Treasury yields usually drop—and so do mortgage rates.
But right now? The bond market is sending mixed signals.
Some investors still expect two cuts this year.
Others think maybe we’ll get one—or none.
That uncertainty keeps long-term rates elevated.
So it turns out, It’s a waiting game.
The Fed is waiting for the economy to cool down more.
The mortgage market is waiting for the Fed to blink.
And buyers and sellers? We’re all just waiting—for better rates, for more certainty, and for a sign that the real estate market is ready to unfreeze.
So then that begs the question, how long do we have to wait?
Will the FED cut rates later this year?
The answer is… probably.
But let’s be clear: “probably” isn’t a plan. It’s a forecast. And forecasts can change.
Here’s what we know:
The Fed releases something called the “dot plot” after each meeting. It’s basically a graph where each dot represents one Fed official’s guess at where interest rates will be in the future.
At the June 2025 meeting, the median dot showed two cuts expected before the end of the year. That would bring the federal funds rate down from the current range of 5.25%–5.50% to something closer to 4.75%–5.00%.
But here’s the catch: not everyone agrees.
So what will determine whether those cuts happen?
It all comes down to:
Inflation continuing to fall (sustainably, not just for one month)
The labor market slowing without crashing
And the broader economy avoiding any weird surprises
The Fed has made it clear they’re being “data-dependent,” which is central bank speak for: We’re not committing to anything until the numbers force our hand.
So the best guess on the next rate cut is late fall.
If inflation continues easing into late summer and early fall, the most likely window for the first rate cut would be around September or November.
That could mean slightly lower mortgage rates heading into the end of the year—though don’t expect a sudden crash.
Remember: mortgage rates don’t move in lockstep with the Fed.
But if the market believes the Fed is ready to pivot?
That’s when you’ll start seeing rates drift lower.
So what happens when rates drop?
Let’s talk real numbers.
Let’s say you’re approved for a $2,500/month mortgage payment. We’re going to keep taxes and insurance out of this to make the math cleaner.
If the interest rate is 7.0%
You can afford a loan amount of roughly $375,000.
If the rate drops to 6.5% (a 0.5% drop)
Now you can afford about $400,000.
That’s $25,000 more buying power—just from half a percent.
If the rate drops to 6.0% (a full 1.0% drop)
Now you can afford a loan around $425,000.
That’s $50,000 more house—same payment, better rate.
In a competitive market, that extra $25K–$50K might be the difference between:
A starter home and a dream kitchen
Settling for a longer commute vs. landing the right neighborhood
Getting a resale with repairs needed vs. snagging a new construction
Even a small rate drop changes what’s in reach.
So if you’re holding off on buying, waiting for a dip in rates could open up more options—but remember, when rates fall, more buyers also jump back in, which can heat up competition.
Because here’s the catch: waiting becomes contagious.
And it’s where I get a little concerned.
We’re starting to hear more confident chatter about two rate cuts coming later this year—maybe September, maybe November.
And on the surface, that sounds great, right?
“Just wait a little longer and you’ll get a better deal.”
But that’s the problem.
Because what happens is: buyers start hitting the brakes—again.
They say, “Well, I’ve already waited this long… might as well keep waiting.”
And then the market slows even more—not because people can’t buy, but because they’re holding out for a slightly better rate.
It’s like the housing version of “refreshing your flight search hoping prices drop another $30”—but in this case, it could mean missing out on the right house, or getting caught in a buyer frenzy once everyone jumps back in at once.
So yes, buying power improves when rates drop—but waiting too long can come with its own risks:
More buyer competition
Fewer available homes
And possibly rising home prices offsetting that rate savings
If you're planning to buy, the key isn't just waiting for a better rate—it's timing the move with your budget, the right house, and your long-term plans.
And if you’re a seller in today’s market, you’ve probably felt it.
Traffic is slower.
Showings are fewer.
And offers? Well... they’re not exactly flooding in.
And it’s frustrating, especially if your neighbor’s house sold in 3 days back in 2021 after a bidding war and a handwritten letter from someone’s toddler.
But here’s what’s different now: Buyers are no longer in a rush.
There are still buyers out there. Plenty of them, in fact.
But they’re nervous. Mortgage rates are high. Prices haven’t come down enough to offset those rates. And now that they’ve heard rates might go down later this year, many of them are thinking:
“Let’s just wait a little longer and see what happens.”
So it’s not that your home isn’t desirable.
It’s that buyers are hesitating—waiting to feel like the market is moving in their favor before making a big financial commitment.
That buyer pause doesn’t just mean fewer showings. It also shifts the balance of power in negotiations.
Here’s what that looks like:
Buyers ask for more concessions (closing costs, repairs, rate buydowns)
They take longer to make offers
They feel more comfortable walking away
And that means as a seller, you can’t just list your home and wait for someone to fall in love with it on day one.
You need a strategy.
If you're planning to sell before the end of the year, here's how to position yourself:
1. Price smart from the start
Overpricing your home “just to see what happens” is risky right now. Today’s buyers are looking for value—not dreams. If your home is priced right, you’ll stand out among overpriced listings and stale inventory.
2. Offer strategic incentives
Think about what your likely buyer needs: maybe that’s help with closing costs, or buying down their interest rate. These incentives can make your home more appealing without lowering your asking price.
3. Be prepared to negotiate
You’re not powerless—but flexibility is key. If you can be responsive and willing to meet buyers halfway, you’re more likely to get the deal done.
So… What now?
Here’s the truth: at this point, everyone understands the uncertainty. We’ve lived with it for years. The pandemic, inflation, rate hikes, supply chain drama, you name it—we’ve all gotten used to the chaos.
That’s not what’s holding people back anymore.
What’s holding people back now… is mortgage rates.
Buyers aren’t confused. They’re waiting.
Waiting for rates to drop.
Waiting for that magical “better time” that economists and news headlines have been forecasting for two years straight.
But let’s be honest: those forecasts haven’t aged well.
Rates were supposed to improve in 2023. They didn’t.
They were supposed to ease up in early 2024. They didn’t.
And now here we are, halfway through 2025, still hearing: “Just wait a little longer.”
At some point, you have to decide what kind of participant you’re going to be in this market.
You can be a market hold-out—
Someone who keeps waiting, hoping, watching forecasts like they’re horoscopes, and pushing decisions further down the road in case the next Fed meeting is finally the one that makes everything easier.
But that plan? It’s already failed multiple times.
And it comes with a real cost: missed opportunities, rising home prices, more competition when rates do dip, and another year of watching from the sidelines.
Or you can be a market participant—
Someone who makes a decision based on what is true today:
Yes, rates are higher than we’d like.
Yes, it would be great if they dropped.
But you can still buy a home.
You can still negotiate great terms.
You can still build equity, stability, and a life—without needing everything to be perfect first.
And you know what, if rates do go down, you can refinance. You’re not tied the rate you get today forever.
So How Is All This Playing Out in Dallas–Fort Worth?
We’ve talked a lot about what the Fed is doing, what mortgage rates are doing, and how buyers and sellers are reacting across the country.
But let’s bring it home—literally.
Because while national headlines set the tone, real estate is always local. And here in Dallas–Fort Worth, the market is responding in its own unique way.
Inventory is climbing. There are now 50,703 homes for sale in DFW—up 26% year-over-year—and about 5.3 months supply, compared to approximately 4.2 months last year.
Home prices are flattening or falling. DFW-wide, the median sale price is $375,000, down ~1.3% YoY. Price per square foot declined 3.1% to $188 per square foot.
Homes are taking longer to sell. The median days on market across DFW: 32 versus 24 one year ago.
Buyers have some serious negotiating leverage.
The sale-to-original list price ratio in DFW is 96.8%, meaning buyers often get homes for 3–4% under the original asking price.
So what’s the takeaway?
If You’re a Buyer:
Plenty of inventory means choices—and serious negotiating power.
With nearly half of listings having price drops, it’s a strong time to look for deals.
More time on market means less pressure to make quick decisions.
If You’re a Seller:
This isn't 2021. You can’t expect your home to disappear in a weekend.
Expect listings to stay up around a month—and don’t count on multiple offers.
Pricing matters more than ever. A realistic list price attracts serious buyers and avoids lingering on the market.
The fact of the matter is the DFW market is shifting.
Supply is rising
Prices are flattening or dipping
Sales are slowing, but not collapsing
This isn’t a crash—it’s a correction, which is healthy after years of crazy growth.
And with rates stuck near 7%, buyers are hitting pause—creating space for negotiation. Sellers need to recognize that and adapt: price smart, prepare thoroughly, and be ready to engage.
Are you thinking about buying soon? Selling in the next 90 days?
Or are you still on the fence, waiting to see what the market does next?
Either way, I’d love to hear your thoughts.
I’m Jennifer Templeton, Realtor and Broker Associate with The Crestedge Group at Keller Williams Rockwall.