Tariffs, Rates & Recession Talk: What It Means for Housing

Lately, it feels like every headline is trying to sell you a panic attack—tariffs, recessions, market swings. But here’s what you won’t hear: we may actually be in one of the strongest housing markets of our lifetime. Let’s cut through the noise and talk about what’s really happening right now.

You’ve probably noticed the headlines lately. Words like “TARRIFFS,” “RECESSION,” and “STOCK MARKET VOLATILITY” are being tossed around like confetti—except nobody’s really celebrating. And in the middle of it all? Real estate. Quietly doing its thing while everyone else is yelling into the void.

So let’s slow down for a second and talk about what’s actually happening—not what the headlines want you to feel, but what the data is actually showing us.

Because while the news cycle can sometimes feel like it’s trying to sell us a panic button, the real estate market right now? It’s more nuanced than that.

The Calm in the Chaos

Let’s start here: Most homeowners—83% of them—have mortgage rates under 6%.

That’s not just a number. That’s a behavior. It tells us people aren’t rushing to list their homes unless they absolutely have to, because they know they’re holding a golden ticket in the form of a historically low interest rate.

At the same time, nearly 40% of homeowners own their homes free and clear.

Another 29% are what we call “equity rich.” Translation? People have a lot of cushion. This isn’t 2008. This isn’t the same movie playing on a different screen.

So when you hear people say, “There’s a crash coming,” ask yourself: based on what?

Goldilocks Inventory—Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold

Let’s shift to inventory. In the Dallas-Fort Worth area, we’re starting to see some real movement here. Active listings are climbing—and not just a little. In fact, we’ve officially surpassed 2019 inventory levels.

Now, if that makes your eyebrows raise, take a beat.

Yes, it’s a notable change. But it’s also a logical one. Because what else has grown in DFW over the past six years? The population. Dramatically. More people means more demand, and naturally, more housing supply follows.

So while we’re seeing more homes on the market, it’s not an overcorrection—it’s a rebalancing. Think of it less like a warning sign and more like the market stretching its legs after a few years of sprinting.

And here’s the upside: more inventory can lead to price moderation, more negotiation power for buyers, and a less frantic experience overall. That’s good news for nearly everyone.

What we’re watching now is how much inventory continues to build and whether buyer demand, which is sensitive to mortgage rates, keeps pace. But for now, the increase feels like part of the market maturing—not unraveling.

Tariffs and the Fear Machine

Now let’s talk about the word that’s been tossed around lately like it’s going out of style: tariffs.

Will tariffs increase the cost of building materials? Probably. That’s kind of the point of tariffs. But here’s what’s more relevant: builders are already sitting on inventory. About 31% of homes for sale right now are new construction, and that number is growing.

That’s why builders are offering incentives. That’s why now might actually be a good time to buy—before those costs get priced into future homes. And before the incentives disappear.

Recession Talk—A Quick History Check

You’re going to hear more chatter about recession. You might already be hearing it from coworkers, clients, even your neighbors.

But here’s what’s interesting.

In the last six recessions, home prices went up in four of them. They went down significantly just once—2008—and that was due to a very specific cocktail of bad lending, overbuilding, and financial engineering.

That’s not today’s market.

So while the word “recession” sounds scary, the data doesn’t back up the idea that it’s a disaster for housing. In fact, recessions tend to bring falling mortgage rates. And that’s exactly what we’re starting to see now—rates hovering in the mid-sixes, with signs of dipping lower.

Speaking of rates, if you’ve watched my videos for a while, you’ll know that I’ve been saying that when rates start to drop, buyers will start to come back into the market.

Well, In the most recent data from the Mortgage Bankers Association, mortgage applications just surged. We’re talking a 20% jump in a single week, and a 24% increase compared to this time last year.

Let’s pause on that for a second. This is the kind of movement that says a lot without shouting. It shows us, in real time, just how rate-sensitive today’s market is. The moment rates start to dip—even slightly—buyers and even refinancers start lining up again.

And this isn’t just a blip.

According to the MBA, this is the highest level of mortgage applications since September 2024. For purchase loans specifically, we’re seeing the strongest pace since January of 2024. Which, if you remember, was when the year kicked off with a bit of cautious optimism before things got bumpy again.

What does this mean? Simply put: demand isn’t dead—it’s just on standby. Buyers haven’t given up. They’re watching. They’re waiting. And the minute conditions shift in their favor, they move. Fast.

This is why keeping perspective matters. Because if you’re a buyer, this is your reminder that you’re not the only one watching the market. And if you’re a seller, it’s a clue that the pool of serious buyers may be bigger than it looks—especially when rates flirt with the right number.

So now that we’ve zoomed out and looked at the national landscape, let’s bring things closer to home—because real estate is, at its core, local.

Here in Dallas-Fort Worth, the numbers are telling a very specific story. One that isn’t alarmist or euphoric, but somewhere in between—measured, and quietly shifting.

Let’s start with prices. The median sales price across our MLS is now $375,000, which is up just 0.5% from a year ago. So, not exactly skyrocketing, but also not falling. Think of it more as the market catching its breath.

But where things really get interesting is on the inventory side.

We now have 43,661 homes for sale, a 26.9% increase from this time last year. That’s significant. And in March alone, 18,869 homes were newly listed—up 15.9% year-over-year. So if it’s felt like there are more "For Sale" signs around town lately... it’s because there are.

That said, pending sales are down 3.1%, with just over 10,700 homes under contract. And that softening in buyer activity is also showing up in a few other places.

For one, homes are sitting longer. The median time on market is now 39 days, up from 29 days last year. That extra week and a half gives buyers a bit more breathing room—but it also means sellers need to be a bit more strategic.

We’re also seeing a slight dip in what buyers are willing to pay. The price per square foot has dropped 1.1% to $188, and homes are now selling for 96.5% of their original list price, down from 97.3% a year ago. It’s a subtle shift, but it points to buyers having a little more leverage—and a little less urgency.

And finally, closed sales in March came in at 9,615 homes, which is a 2.9% decrease from the same month last year.

All of this adds up to 4.6 months of inventory on the market right now. That’s up nearly 28%, and importantly, it brings us into what’s considered a balanced market—between four to six months of supply.

Not too hot. Not too cold.

So what does this mean for you?

If you’re a buyer, this might be one of the more favorable markets we’ve seen in years—more choices, more time, and less pressure.

If you’re a seller, it’s still a good market—just one where pricing, presentation, and patience matter more than ever.

The frenzy is gone. But the fundamentals? They’re still strong.

What’s the Takeaway?

You don’t need to predict the future to feel confident in the market. You just need to zoom out. Look at the long-term patterns. Understand the difference between fear-based headlines and fact-based decisions.

If you’re a buyer: know your numbers, understand your financing options, and recognize that opportunities often come when others are nervous.

If you’re a seller: understand where your home sits in today’s pricing environment, and be open to a thoughtful marketing strategy that meets buyers where they are.

And if you’re just watching from the sidelines? That’s okay too. But don’t let headlines do all the talking for you. Get curious. Ask better questions. Get better answers.

The market doesn’t need hype right now. It needs clarity. It needs people who are willing to ask: “What’s really happening?” and then do the work to find out.

Because calm isn’t the absence of noise. It’s choosing not to let the noise drive the story.

And there you have it. That’s your April real estate market update.

And if we haven’t met yet— 

I’m Jennifer Templeton, Realtor and Broker Associate with The Crestedge Group at Keller Williams Rockwall. Our group works with buyers and sellers all across the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, and if you're thinking about making a move in 2025, we’d love to be your real estate resource and earn your business.

Call or text me at 214-803-4444, or send an email to jennifer@thecrestedgegroup.com to get started.