DFW Real Estate: Smart Move or Risky Gamble?

You gotta know when to hold 'em… know when to fold 'em… and know when to walk away..." 
Yeah, I’m quoting Kenny Rogers. And no, this isn’t a poker tutorial.

But it is about a kind of gamble—one I see a lot of buyers making right now.

Here’s what’s happening:
A buyer will come across a great opportunity. The kind of deal that checks all the boxes—maybe even comes with that Instagram-perfect kitchen—and instead of making a move, they get spooked.

Maybe because it’s a buyers’ market they feel certain they can squeeze the seller a little more. 

Or that prices and rates are going to drop if they just wait a few more weeks.

So they walk.

It’s like they’re trying to count cards, hoping they’ll outsmart the market and score a better deal later. But this game doesn’t come with a predictable deck.

So in this video, we’re going to talk about what every smart buyer should know right now:
When to hold ‘em. When to fold ‘em. And when to walk away—but with a plan.

Let’s start with “hold ‘em”—aka, when it’s actually smart to go for it.

Here’s what that looks like:

The house checks most of your boxes (remember, 80–90% is basically a four of a kind in real estate).

The seller’s offering decent concessions—maybe they’re helping with closing costs or offering a mortgage rate buydown.
The monthly payment fits your budget without giving up coffee, hobbies, or a will to live.

You've got a rate lock that feels tolerable—even if not thrilling.
And maybe most importantly: you’d be kind of crushed if someone else snags it.

Now let’s add some data to that.

The average 30-year mortgage rate is hovering around 7%. It’s high compared to a couple years ago, but it’s been remarkably stable.

And the Fed? They’ve been sending more mixed signals than a toddler with a walkie-talkie.
Rate cuts could happen, but probably not as fast—or as deep—as you’re hoping.

And when rates do go down? So does your negotiating power. More buyers will jump back in. That same house will get more expensive—not necessarily in price, but in competition.

So if the math works now and the house is solid…
It might be time to hold 'em.

Now how about knowing when to fold ‘em. 

You don’t have to commit just because you made it to the final round.

Sometimes walking away from this house is the smartest play you can make.

Here’s when to fold:

The inspection reveals a money pit and the seller shrugs.

You feel rushed or pressured, but your gut is throwing red flags like it’s the World Cup.

You realize you’d have to renovate, repaint, and rewire your way into happiness—and that’s not in your budget or bandwidth. Or maybe you just found three similar homes in the same area for less money. That’s your cue to reshuffle.

Here’s the thing:
In many areas, overpriced homes are just sitting. Days on market are creeping up.
And sellers who missed the spring frenzy? They’re more open to negotiating now.
So folding doesn't mean quitting—it just means playing a smarter hand.

And then there’s walking away.
This isn’t about one deal. It’s about knowing you might not be ready for the table at all.

And that’s okay.

Here’s when to walk:

Your finances aren’t stable. Maybe your job situation’s shaky, or you’re carrying too much debt.

Or you simply don’t know where you’ll be in the next 2 years.

Buying a home should feel like a step forward, not a leap into chaos.

So if you need to sit out this hand? Sit out. Build your savings. Improve your credit.
Come back to the table with better cards.

Here’s what I always tell buyers in this situation:
Stay in touch with your Realtor. Stay in touch with your lender. And set up a plan.

Because markets change. Inventory shifts. Rates move. 

So maybe you’re walking away for now. But if you’ve got a clear game plan? You’ll know exactly when it’s time to walk back in.

And Kenny was right about another thing. You never count your money while you’re sittin’ at the table.

Because real estate isn’t about winning the jackpot.

It’s about knowing how to read the room… understand your odds…
And choose the move that puts you in the strongest position—not just today, but long-term.

Now every good card player knows, you don’t just play your hand, you read the table.

Same goes for real estate.

Because when you’re eyeing a property, it’s not just about your offer—it’s about how the listing is performing. Is the seller holding a strong hand? Or are they getting a little desperate to deal?

Here’s how you can tell:
I built a tool called the Listing Activity Analyzer—and it uses Zillow’s own data to help you get a read on how much traction a property is actually getting online.

We're talking:

Total views
Saves
Days on market

and how those stats compare to the benchmarks Zillow created when analyzing their massive data set of homes and the activity associated with each and compared it to how quickly those homes sold.

If the numbers are low?
You might have more leverage than you think. Maybe that seller’s been bluffing.
If the numbers are hot—tons of saves and showings?
That’s a signal you may need to play your hand fast and strong.

It’s not a guarantee, but it gives you intel.

Because in this market, knowledge is power—and sometimes, it’s the edge that wins the round.

So if you’re wondering whether now’s the time to push, pause, or play it safe—run the listing through the analyzer first. Scan the QR code right here on screen, or click the link in the description for the Listing Activity Analyzer.

Plug in the Zillow views, saves, and days on Zillow for the home you’re interested in, and let the tool tell you what’s really going on behind the scenes.

If you're unsure which hand to play, let's talk strategy.

My name is Jennifer Templeton, your Dallas-Fort Worth real estate agent. If you’re looking to understand more about what’s going on in this market, go ahead, click on the links in the description, book a Zoom call, let’s go through the data together, and figure out how this can all affect your personal situation.

Whether you’re ready to hold, fold, or walk—we’ll figure it out together.
Because the best real estate decisions are never a gamble. They’re made with clarity.