DFW Housing Market Update: What No One's Telling You

You don’t have to be buying or selling a home to care about the Dallas-Fort Worth real estate market.

You check your 401(k), even if you're not retiring tomorrow. You glance at the gas prices, even if you're not filling up today. Same goes here—real estate is one of the biggest economic signals we’ve got, and right now, DFW is flashing some very mixed messages.

Inventory is up, some prices are down, builders are stirring the pot, and migration is slowing. So whether you’re casually curious or strategically planning, this update is for you.

Alright, first up: there’s suddenly a lot more homes on the market. Remember those bidding wars where homes sold before the sign even hit the yard? Well, things have shifted.

Inventory jumped over 28 percent compared to last year—that’s a significant shift towards a more balanced market. So if you’re a buyer who’s felt beaten up by crazy competition over the last few years, this might finally be your moment.

But here’s the interesting part: more houses on the market typically means lower prices. Especially when we consider a 28% inventory jump. Well, that’s not exactly what’s happening. When we look at the MLS as a whole, prices are only down .9% year over year.

With a median sales price of $373,000, this means we’re only seeing about a $3,270 drop. So not exactly the housing crash so many were expecting but prices aren’t climbing endlessly upwards like they used to.

Now homes are spending a little more time on the market these days compared to last year,

About 61 days on average, but the good news is that number has actually been on a two-month decline. Now, buyers are actually getting to sleep on their decisions. Imagine that.

And here’s another wrinkle—suburban sprawl. Dallas-Fort Worth has been building outwards aggressively, keeping housing relatively affordable in the outlying areas compared to other major metros. Between 2010 and 2023, DFW added more housing than almost anywhere else in the country. So, if you're wondering why the suburbs feel busier and more crowded, that's why. They're absorbing thousands of new residents and businesses.

That sprawl has new construction listings up 16.8% year over year and new construction listings also currently account for 23% of the entire market.

Speaking of growth, some major projects are set to change the face of DFW even more dramatically. Take the massive South Creek Ranch development by Cawley Partners near Ferris, Texas. We’re talking initial plans to turn 2,000 acres into a network of digital commerce parks. Over time, the developers anticipate this will create a demand for as many as 5,000 new homes. If you've never heard of Ferris, well, you probably will soon.

Interestingly, some submarkets, like Colleyville and Farmers Branch have seen some substantial price corrections. They’re both down 27.5% and 12.6% year over year, respectively. This shows we have some pockets of opportunity if you know where to look.

Meanwhile, rental markets are flat for now. So a little bit of relief for renters but the median price is still at $2,300 per month for a single family home.

And finally, migration patterns into Texas—especially to Dallas—are slowing down. We saw a sharp drop from about 35,000 new residents in 2023 to only 13,000 last year. It seems the rising cost of living here is beginning to chip away at the area's attractiveness, compared to more affordable states and cities.

So what does all of this mean—for you, for buyers, for sellers?

Well, whether you’re just real estate-curious or you’re actually planning a move, this market update gives you a leg up.

Keeping tabs on real estate is like checking the weather—you want to know if you’ll need sunscreen, a jacket, or to brace yourself for a storm. These trends affect everything from affordability to investment potential to whether your neighbor’s ‘temporary’ chicken coop becomes a permanent HOA debate.

The more you know, the better decisions you make. And if you like this kind of breakdown—less hype, more insight—hit subscribe and stick around. I’ll keep you posted.