Dallas Housing Market Update
Is the DFW Housing Market Balancing Out?
Are we finally seeing a shift towards a balanced real estate market in Dallas-Fort Worth? With home sales at a 29-year low, prices still climbing, and mortgage rates hovering around 7%, many buyers and sellers are wondering what’s next. Let’s break down the latest trends, insights, and what they mean for you.
National Housing Market Trends: A Rollercoaster Ride
According to USA TODAY, 2024 saw the lowest number of existing home sales in nearly three decades. Only 4.06 million homes were sold, a sharp decline from 6.1 million in 2021. This marks the third consecutive year of declining sales. But why?
The Affordability Crunch
The biggest hurdle remains affordability. High mortgage rates combined with rising home prices have made homeownership more challenging. Here’s what this means for buyers:
Less competition: Fewer buyers in the market can mean more negotiating power.
Higher mortgage rates: Even small rate changes significantly impact monthly payments.
Slower home sales: Buyers are taking more time to make decisions.
Rising Home Prices: How Is That Possible?
Despite the sales slowdown, home prices are still climbing. In December 2024, the median home price rose 6% compared to December 2023. Why? Low inventory. While housing supply has increased in DFW, it’s still not enough to offset demand, allowing sellers to push prices higher.
Mortgage Rates and Buyer Behavior
The Mortgage Bankers Association reports that mortgage rates remain at 7%, and that number is a psychological barrier for many buyers. Applications are up just 2% from last year, showing that buyers are still hesitant.
But there’s a silver lining: home sales increased 9.3% in December compared to the previous year. Could this be a sign of market stabilization?
The Texas Market: Growth vs. Infrastructure Challenges
Explosive Growth in North Texas
Texas continues to see massive population growth, especially in the DFW metroplex. Some key highlights:
Celina, TX was the fastest-growing city in the U.S. (2022-2023).
Building permits up 17% year-over-year, signaling increased new home construction.
Infrastructure Struggles
However, some areas are struggling to keep up. Princeton, TX has extended a moratorium on new building permits due to strained infrastructure—water, roads, and public safety services are at capacity.
This raises an important question for buyers: Is the area you’re considering prepared for long-term growth? The house itself is just part of the equation; the surrounding community’s ability to sustain growth is equally important.
Luxury Market Thriving Amidst Uncertainty
While affordability remains a challenge for many, the luxury market is booming. Sales of $1 million+ homes are surging in DFW. Why?
Wealthy buyers are less dependent on mortgages.
Rising interest rates don’t impact them as much.
Confidence in long-term value remains strong.
This divide highlights two very different markets—one struggling with affordability, the other continuing to thrive.
Key DFW Market Stats (December 2024 Data)
Home Prices and Inventory
Median Sales Price: $378,000 (+3.6% YoY)
Active Listings: 36,467 (+21.5% YoY)
New Listings: 9,326 (+11% YoY)
Buyer & Seller Trends
Price per Square Foot: $188 (+0.5% YoY)
Pending Sales: 6,773 (-3.1% YoY)
Closed Sales: 8,890 (+13.6% YoY)
Days on Market: 46 days (+27.8% YoY)
What This Means:
More inventory means more choices for buyers and less urgency to make quick decisions.
Sellers must price strategically—overpricing could lead to longer time on market.
Homes are still selling, but at a more measured pace.
What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?
Buyers:
More inventory = less pressure and more negotiation power.
Mortgage rates remain high, but waiting too long could mean paying more later.
Research local infrastructure before committing to a home.
Sellers:
More competition means pricing strategy is key.
Overpricing in a more balanced market could result in longer time on market.
Buyers are more selective and have more options.
Is DFW Headed Toward a Balanced Market?
The months of supply is currently 3.9 months, a 21.9% increase from last year. A balanced market is typically 4-6 months of supply, meaning we’re getting close.
However, real estate is hyperlocal. Some neighborhoods remain seller-friendly, while others are tilting towards buyers.
Looking Ahead: What to Expect in 2025
While we can’t predict the future with certainty, a few trends stand out:
Mortgage rates will remain a key factor—any dips could spark buyer demand.
DFW’s population growth will continue driving housing demand.
More inventory could stabilize price increases, making it a more balanced market.
The Texas economy remains strong, and long-term housing demand is expected to persist. Whether you’re buying or selling, strategy is more important than ever.
Need Expert Guidance?
The DFW real estate market is changing, and having the right expertise can make all the difference. Whether you’re looking to buy, sell, or invest, The Crestedge Group is here to help.
📞 Call or text: 214-803-4444
📧 Email: hello@thecrestedgegroup.com